So, what do we mean when say a problem is complex? According to Dr. Melanie Mitchell, there are nine definitions for complex as used by complexity theorists. These definitions range from “complex as a matter of size” to “complex as a degree of hierarchy” to “complex as a measure of algorithmic information content” (pp. 96-111). I tend to think of complexity in terms of systems theory in which you have a number of discrete components with numerous feedback loops and many variables that are hidden within the system processes.

A good example of a complex system is the American economy. There are many discrete components in the forms of companies, consumers, banks, regulatory agencies, etc. all passing information to each other and reacting to that information. Attempts to model the American economy range from the simple macroeconomic diagrams in textbooks to detailed microeconomic equations that requires years of mathematical study to even understand. Yet these models, no matter how detailed, cannot fully describe and fully predict how the American economy operates.

If you accept my definition of complexity then you can see how the next concept describes why complex problems are hard to solve. We have difficulty in solving complex problems because our observation of the problem is hindered, we cannot fully understand the problem, our decision-making processes are flawed, or we cannot act appropriately in confronting the problem. If any of the difficulties I mentioned sound familiar it is because I am describing the four components of the “OODA Loop.”

The Observe-Orient-Decide-Act Loop (OODA) was created by Colonel John Boyd who was a fighter pilot and scholar in military strategy. This concept has been adopted both by the U.S. military and championed by such business experts as Tom Peters. As the diagram below demonstrates, a person, team, or an organization observes a situation along with other inputs. Based on the observations and several internal factors, the subject attempts to orient themselves or understand the unfolding situation. Based on that understanding, the subject then makes a decision and acts upon that decision. Throughout the OODA Loop, there are several feedback channels that make the entire process nonlinear.

Colonel Boyd explained that the use of the OODA Loop was to travel through the Loop faster than your opponent. You present confusing and ambiguous information to your opponent so that they have difficulty orienting themselves and thus are slower to decide and act. Essentially, you want to go through your own OODA Loop faster than your opponent does so that they start falling behind and then are paralyzed by their inability to analyze the situation. Time is the key factor in OODA Loops.

The OODA Loop is why I think complex problems are so difficult to solve. Consider the five components of the OODA Loop as it applies to your personal abilities or the abilities of your team/organization:

• Observe: This is the beginning of the Loop and also feeds into another iteration of the Loop. If your observational abilities are hindered or you just cannot observe all parts of the unfolding situation then you are working with incomplete information. History is replete with examples where disasters occurred because of the lack of key information.
• Orient: This is where you/the team/the organization takes in the new information and pairs it with your previous knowledge, cultural traditions, and other internal factors that influence how you process and analyze information. So, even if you are able to observe the entire unfolding situation, your internal abilities to process and analyze this information can prevent you from fully understanding what is happening.
• Decide: This relates to your ability to generate hypothesis about the situation and possible responses. There is the common “paralysis by analysis” which hinders decision making because you are still trying to orient yourself to the situation. Or, even if the organization has a good understanding of the situation, decision processes may be so cumbersome that you cannot make a decision in time to act on the situation.
• Act: You may not have the resources to act promptly and/or appropriately. Your understanding of the situation may have led to a flawed decision that forces an invalid response to the situation. You do not have the proper feedback mechanism built in your action to determine how your act affected the unfolding situation.
• Feedback: As you go through the OODA Loop, you are constantly generating and receiving feedback from your current iteration and previous iterations. Without good feedback design, your own actions can contribute to the ambiguity of the situation. This is especially true of wicked problems where there is no consensus on the actual shape of the problem and your actions can drastically morph the problem into a completely new problem.

The good news here is that you can also use the OODA Loop to better your abilities to handle complex problems. Use the five components as a checklist for improving your (or your organization’s) processes in handling complex problems.

For example: how well do you observe? How good is your organization at collecting and disseminating information internally? Do your people have the necessary prior knowledge and analysis skills to properly orient themselves when new observations come in? How robust and quick is your team’s decision-making skills? What barriers can you remove so that you can act faster? What can you do to improve your feedback mechanisms?

Government is going to face more complex problems especially in a climate of reduced budgets and increasing responsibilities. All government employees at all levels need to sharpen their problem-solving skills so that we are more innovative and can better tackle the looming wicked problems that face the nation. Whether you accept my suggestion to use the OODA Loop or come up with your own problem solving method, the process of thinking about complex problems is a great way to sharpen your problem solving skills.

Reference:
Mitchell, M. (2009). Complexity: A guided tour. New York: Oxford University Press.

It was that advice that has guided me ever since. It is very easy in the euphoria surrounding the triumph of solving a difficult problem or pulling off the near-impossible project to not spend the time questioning just why you succeeded. To do so seems to be diminishing the success and even doubting that you actually did succeed. On the contrary, an objective review of how you succeeded will greatly help you in continuing to succeed.

When we succeed, we can become victims of three biases, according to Gino and Pisano (April 2011). There is the attribution bias in which we overestimate how our knowledge and actions contributed to the success and we downplay any external factors that could have just made us more fortunate. We also become overconfident in our abilities as we tackle the next challenge. The third bias (and which I believe is most important) is that we don’t ask why we succeeded because the success is proof enough.

To illustrate this last bias, Gino and Pisano (April 2011) recount a study in which students were given a set of math problems to complete. When the students submitted their answers, they were only told if they had the answer right or wrong. The students were given time to reflect before they were given a second set of math problems. The second set was designed so that a key concept in the first set of problems was needed to solve the second set. The students who successfully solved the first set of problems generally spent much less time reflecting before they started on the second set of problems. Thus, many of these students failed to find the answer for the second set of problems. Reflection, whether the student succeeded or not, is the key to continuing to be successful.

So, how do we best learn from success? We should celebrate success but also examine the causes of success. For every project, we should hold a systematic review. Gino and Pisano (April 2011) give the example of Pixar’s review process. Even though Pixar has had eleven hit animated films in a row, the company still goes through an exhaustive review process to determine what made the film successful and how to repeat that success.

Another point to keep in mind is to fully investigate the feedback. Was it immediate or at least can be connected to the actions taken? Is the feedback a true indicator of success or just a random event that looks like a successful outcome? Feedback is an important concept and I explore it in greater detail in this discussion posting.

Two final points. First, “[r]ecognize that replication is not learning” (Gino and Pisano, April 2011). Blindly following the same formula again and again can suddenly turn against us as the nature of the problem changes and what worked before doesn’t work now. And, second, we should always be experimenting. We can always improve how we do something. Plus, we can create variations on our actions that may not apply to the current situation but can apply to a challenge in the future.

Failure is a great teacher but so is success. Learning from our successes will keep us from becoming “one-hit wonders” and give us the string of successful “hits” to be “rock stars.”

Reference:
Pino, F., & Pisano, G.P. (April 2011). Why leaders don’t learn from success. Harvard Business Review. 68-74.

She gives an example of how children learn more when they are given tools to create content rather than tools that just deliver content.  Now, she talks about technology in the classroom but this equally applies to technology in the workplace.  Think of the training that consists of delivering content (lecture, PowerPoint, brown bag talk, etc.) versus the training where people are encouraged to play with the new software program or tool.

I consider the basis of learning to be the creation of mental models.  You cannot just transmit your mental model completely to me; I have to create one unique to my own mind.  You can give me information to build the model and you can create experiences that will shape the mental model but the final product is still through my unique mental processes.  But every mental model starts with engagement.  Thus, this is why allowing people to make content rather than absorb content is the key to effective learning.

In the first article, McCabe gives a more detailed description of organizational culture as a collection of shared memories.  These memories can contradict each other or just be ambiguous about past organizational events but, woven together, these memories form a dynamic and conflicting culture for the organization.  McCabe disputes the common belief of many management theorists that the past can be erased in favor of the new reality because the past always blocks change.  Organizational memory is more complex than that because some memories can help facilitate change while other aspects resist change.  McCabe concludes by stating that organizational memory cannot be managed as part of the change process but must be accounted for.

McCabe’s article illuminates the findings in the second article by Becker.  The second article deals with the process of acquiring new technology in an organization.  As Becker explains, for employees to adopt a new technology they must unlearn the old technology.  They do this through releasing mental models of the workings of the old technology and create mental models of how the new technology works.  Memories of past change efforts can hinder the process of unlearning if it promotes fear and anxiety among the employees.  Becker does not have any specific remedies for dealing with organizational memory and unlearning but she does argue that further research is necessary to fully understand the unlearning process.

The relevance to Gov 2.0 is clear.  Many agencies have long and painful memories of past change efforts that have been woven into the current culture.  Gov 2.0 advocates must understand and acknowledge the past while developing strategies to alleviate the fear that will prevent government employees from unlearning the current way things are done in favor of making government transparent, open, and engaging.  Gov 2.0 advocates must take the positive aspects of the past and use those events to counter the negative past events while realizing that culture cannot be fully controlled.

References:

Becker, K. (2010). Facilitating unlearning during implementation of new technology. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 23:3. 251-268.

McCabe, D. (2010). Taking the long view: A cultural analysis of memory as resisting and facilitating organizational change. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 23:3. 230-250.

“Brian: I am NOT the Messiah!
Arthur: I say you are Lord, and I should know. I’ve followed a few.”

 Other nations have realized the value of universal education and its power to revitalize the economy and well-being of the citizens.  Ireland is the most notable example and one can argue that the rise of India and China is due to their emphasis on education.  American politicians claim to advocate education but after thirty years of concentrated effort, the US still lags behind other countries.  Clearly we need to rethink our approach and commit to bringing about universal education.