Bill's Notebook » perception of risk http://blog.billbrantley.com Random notes on politics, government, science, and technology. Mon, 26 Sep 2011 15:38:25 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 How Rational We Are At Risk Depends On Our Emotions About the Situation http://blog.billbrantley.com/2010/02/12/how-rational-we-are-at-risk-depends-on-our-emotions-about-the-situation/ http://blog.billbrantley.com/2010/02/12/how-rational-we-are-at-risk-depends-on-our-emotions-about-the-situation/#comments Fri, 12 Feb 2010 23:34:55 +0000 bill http://blog.billbrantley.com/?p=157 Great article explaining why our risk perceptions sometimes follows game theory and why it differs from rational calculations.  By studying sports like tennis, baseball, and football, the research found that players are likely to switch strategies after the previous strategy failed.  For example, according to statistical analysis football coaches should call more passing plays than they actually do.  An explanation for this is that there is more perceived uncertainty with a ball “in the air” even though the evidence demonstrates that rushing is actually more risky.

How this relates to government is that many policies that attempt to handle risk events are highly influenced by the perceived emotional reactions of the public and the employees who have to implement the policies.  Think about how emotions have greatly affected the health care debate with the angry town hall meetings and the specter of “death panels.”

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